Fortunately, it's not this hard!

A Word Problem for Alt-Left Voters

Fortunately, it's not this hard!

Fortunately, it’s not this hard!

Billy, an Alt-Left voter, is trying to decide who to vote for in the upcoming Presidential Election.

  • Candidate Green and Billy share the same opinion 100% of the time.
  • Candidate Blue and Billy share the same opinion 75% of the time.
  • Candidate Orange and Billy share the same opinion 0% of the time.

However…

  • Candidate Green has a 0% chance of getting elected.
  • Candidate Blue has a 51% chance of getting elected.
  • Candidate Orange has a 49% chance of getting elected.

In order to pass any of Billy’s opinions into law, a candidate must:

  1. Get elected
  2. Be able to pass bills in the legislature.

How likely is it for each Candidate to be able to get laws that Billy likes passed through Congress?

  • Candidate Green, if elected, would have 0% chance passing bills that Billy likes.
  • Candidate Blue, if elected, would have a 50% chance of passing bills that Billy likes.
  • Candidate Orange, were he elected, would never pass a bill that Billy likes.

So, which Candidate Should Billy Support?

Be sure to show your work.