ancient-trees-beth-moon-9

Election Model, Bell Curve Distributed Ideology

ancient-trees-beth-moon-9Premise: Where voter ideology is distributed along a bell cure, “Left Center” and “Right Center” candidates are more viable than “Left” or “Right” candidates, producing 1 win or 1 tie compared to 1 tie or 1 loss.

Results from Matchups:
Left or Right Candidates will produce: 1 tie, 1 loss
Left Center or Right Center Candidates will produce: 1 win, 1 tie

Voter Distribution:
(LV) Left Voters = 15%
(LCV) Left Center Voters =  20%
(SV) Swing Voters = 30%
(RC) Right Center Voters = 20%
(RV) Right Voters = 15%

Candidates:

Left | Left Center || Right Center | Right

Election Matchups:

Left Candidate Vs. Right Candidate:
Left Candidate: 100% LV + 100% LCV + 50% SV = 50% (Tie)
Right Candidate: 100% RV + 100% RCV + 50% SV = 50% (Tie)

Left Candidate Vs. Right Center Candidate:
Left Candidate: 100% LV + 100% LCV + 0 % SV = 35% (Loss)
Right Center Candidate: 100% RV + 100% RCV + 100% SV = 65% (Win)

Left Center Candidate Vs. Right Candidate:
Left Center Candidate: 100% LV + 100% LCV + 100% SV = 65% (Win)
Right Candidate: 100% RV + 100% RCV + 0 % SV = 35% (Loss)

Left Center Candidate Vs. Right Center Candidate:
Left Center: 100% LV + 100% LCV + 50% SV = 50% (Tie)
Right Center: 100 RV + 100% RCV + 50% SV = 50% (Tie)